Carrot Health Insights | Predicting Medicare Plan Choice

Published on September 22, 2017

Picking a Medicare plan is a consumer choice. When seniors turn 65 and become eligible for Medicare, they have an array of plan types and insurance carriers to choose from. What factors influence this decision? Some are obvious: price, plan availability, plan design features, and physician network coverage. But this isn’t the full story. It turns out that underlying social, behavioral and demographic variables also play an important role.

To measure this effect, Carrot Health created a predictive model that identifies key consumer data variables associated with high Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollment. For the country as a whole, MA represents 31% of overall Medicare enrollment — the percentage varies widely by state and county. Our model found that the following factors were predictive of high MA utilization in a given county:

  • Higher metro population density
  • Lower socio-economic status
  • Higher health engagement
  • Higher voter turnout
  • Lower prevalance of chronic conditions

Our analysis also identified outlier counties. The green regions in the map below represent metropolitan areas with unusually high MA penetration. The red regions are markets where MA is under-penetrated — these represent potential growth opportunities for health plans.

Medicare Advantage Over- and Under-Penetration

The Carrot MarketView™ software platform can deliver this analysis to health plans and health systems in real time, at a highly granular, hyper-local level — even down to individual households and consumers. By identifying desirable, customized micro-segments, MarketView turns consumer data insights into actions that improve market share, profitability, and revenue growth.

To learn more about how Carrot MarketView can deliver Healthcare Business Intelligence to your team, please contact us to schedule a demo.

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