UPDATED MARCH 17, 2020
- Total Population: Represents the total number of people age 18+ included in the analysis.
- Infection %: The percent of the total population assumed to be diagnosed with COVID-19. Using the Center for Disease Control's estimate for influenza as a proxy, the default value is set at 10%. Users can simulate different scenarios.
- Critical Case Volume: The number of infected patients expected to become critical, meaning the patient will require an ICU level of care and/or ventilator. Based on research published in the New England Journal of Medicine, the current national average 'critical case' rate is projected to be 6.1% of total infections. However, local and regional critical case rates will vary based on multiple factors; this variation is informed by Carrot's COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Index.
- Mortality %: The percent of critical cases expected to end in mortality. Current early findings vary widely; mortality rates among critical cases range from 22-49% in studies reviewed. The default assumption in this report is set at 20%; users can simulate different scenarios.
- Simulated Mortality Volume: The number of total mortalities in the respective geography based on the Infection %, Critical Case Volume %, and Mortality % assumptions.
Research Sources: Scientific research on the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still limited. The initial COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Index is based on the research published in two studies: “Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China” (Journal of the American Medical Association) and “Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China” (New England Journal of Medicine). These articles identified factors that influence the severity of Coronavirus infection, including smoking status, COPD status, high blood pressure status, diabetes status, age (increased risk for older individuals), and gender (increased risk for males).
Methodology: Carrot Health used the factors described above to develop the COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Index. Statuses of smoking, COPD, high blood pressure, and diabetes were based on Carrot Health Likely2 scores. These Likely2 scores were weighted based on the relative proportion of each group with severe cases from the two research papers referenced above to create the COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Index at the individual consumer level. The top 6.1% of the calculated index nationwide were then labeled as "critical cases".
Data Used for Analysis: Carrot Health maintains demographic and behavior data on every adult in the US – approximately 260 million people. Carrot Health's risk analysis is calculated at the individually-identified consumer level. Aggregated reporting at the geographic level is provided in this dashboard.
Publicly Available Data Used to Validate Findings & Resources for Further Research:
- US Census: Age and Gender data provided through the US Census were used for validation.
- Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS): Tobacco use, Diabetes, COPD, and Hypertension rate data provided through the BRFSS were used for validation.
- Dartmouth Atlas: Diabetes, COPD, and hypertension severity data provided through Dartmouth Atlas using CMS FFS claims were used for validation.
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