Published on January 3, 2018
You know the drill: New Year, new you. Americans flock to the gym, fire up their blenders, and dive in on the Whole30… the list goes on and on. But for how long? According to surveys, 80-92% of New Year’s resolutions fail by February. Last year, in an analysis of Google search terms, iQUANTI found that the #1 New Year’s resolution, by a wide margin, was to get healthier. The analysis revealed a remarkable 315% year-over-year increase in gym/fitness-related searches. After a few weeks of holiday feasting and revelry, we vow to hit the gym… but most of us don’t.
Those who do hit the gym and stick with it realize major health benefits. As we wrote in a previous issue of Carrot Health Insights, getting 150 minutes or more of exercise per week is one of the “Big Four” consumer lifestyle behaviors that dramatically reduce the risk of developing cancer and chronic illnesses.
What determines someone’s likelihood to exercise? Can we predict who will follow through on this particular New Year’s resolution? To answer these questions, the data science team at Carrot Health created a Carrot Health Exercise Index (CHEI) that uses social and behavioral data to calculate a score that predicts a given individual’s likelihood to exercise. Because we don’t directly measure everyone’s exercise patterns, we built the CHEI using a range of closely related proxy variables, such as body mass index, heart rate, blood pressure, and clinical diagnosis codes. The map below shows the average CHEI score for each ZIP code in the state of Minnesota (red = low, green = high):
Carrot Health Exercise Index (ZIP Code Level)
Individuals with high CHEI scores have high propensities to exercise — so a New Year’s resolution coming from a high-CHEI person has higher odds of success. Conversely, someone with a low CHEI score will likely face longer odds of following through and actually hitting the gym.
The Carrot Health Exercise Index is an example of how social and behavioral data, combined with predictive modeling, can help healthcare companies better understand their individual members and patients — improving the targeting and effectiveness of population health interventions and increasing market share and profitability.
Carrot MarketView can bring this data, and much more, to your organization. To learn more about our Healthcare Business Intelligence software platform, please contact us to schedule a demo.