COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Dashboard

Carrot Health's COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Dashboard ranks the populations most likely to have a critical illness after contracting the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This interactive dashboard identifies who is most likely to be vulnerable to the critical form of this illness – it does not predict where and when a coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak will occur.

UPDATED APRIL 8, 2020

COVID-19 Risk Score Dashboard Definitions

Total Population: Represents the total number of people age 18+ included in the analysis.
Infection %: The percent of the total population assumed to be diagnosed with COVID-19. Using the Center for Disease Control's estimate for influenza as a proxy, the default value is set at 10%. Users can simulate different scenarios.
Critical Case Volume: The number of infected patients expected to become critical, meaning the patient will require an ICU level of care and/or ventilator. Based on research published in the New England Journal of Medicine, the current national average 'critical case' rate is projected to be between 4.9-11.5% of total infections. However, local and regional critical case rates will vary based on multiple factors; this variation is informed by Carrot's COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Index.
Mortality %: The percent of critical cases expected to end in mortality. Current early findings vary widely; mortality rates among critical cases range from 22-49% in studies reviewed. The default assumption in this report is set at 20%; users can simulate different scenarios.
Simulated Mortality Volume: The number of total mortalities in the respective geography based on the Infection %, Critical Case Volume %, and Mortality % assumptions.

Important Information

COVID-19 Data File Available

Please contact us if you would like to receive a copy of a data file and data dictionary in .csv format. Includes, for all counties in the US: 18+ population count, projected number of high risk individuals, percentage of projected high risk individuals in the 18+ population, median Carrot Health COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Index v2.0, and the number of hospital and ICU beds. Also includes definitions, sources, and an explanation of how numbers were derived.

Research Sources

Scientific research on the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still limited. The initial COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Index is based on the research published in three studies: "Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China" (Journal of the American Medical Association), "Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China" (New England Journal of Medicine) and "Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020" (US CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report). These articles identified factors that influence the severity of Coronavirus infection, including smoking status, COPD status, high blood pressure status, diabetes status, age (increased risk for older individuals), and gender (increased risk for males).

Methodology

Carrot Health used the factors described above to develop the COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Index. Statuses of smoking, COPD, high blood pressure, and diabetes were based on Carrot Health Likely2 scores to match the proportion of US individuals estimated to have each condition by age and gender. Carrot Health then created a simulated dataset based on the three research papers referenced above in order to arrive at an estimate of coefficients for the COVID-19 Critical Infection Risk Index, which was then scored at the individual consumer level. The top decile of the calculated index nationwide were then labeled as those most likely to be at risk of "critical cases".

Data Used for Analysis

Carrot Health maintains demographic and behavior data on every adult in the US – approximately 260 million people. Carrot Health's risk analysis is calculated at the individually-identified consumer level. Aggregated reporting at the geographic level is provided in this dashboard.

Publicly Available Data Used to Validate Findings & Resources for Further Research

US Census: Age and Gender data provided through the US Census were used for validation.
Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS): Tobacco use, Diabetes, COPD, and Hypertension rate data provided through the BRFSS were used for validation.
Dartmouth Atlas: Diabetes, COPD, and hypertension severity data provided through Dartmouth Atlas using CMS FFS claims were used for validation.